Predictive Risk Intelligence · Commercial Auto

See Deterioration
Before It Posts.

Stower reconstructs every insured carrier's risk trajectory and flags the accounts heading toward a loss — weeks before the public safety record catches up. Your underwriters act while there's still a decision to make.

Starts On A Slice Of Your Book
Your Data Never Leaves Your Control
Carrier · DOT #—— · Trajectory Flag Active
STOWER FLAGS PUBLIC RECORD POSTS t0 now risk
Lead Time
+61d
Ahead Of Public Record
Severity Est.
High
Expected Loss Class
Recommended
Review
Targeted Action
Signal Drivers
OOS_RATE_VELOCITY INSPECTION_STREAK VIOLATION_MIX RENEWAL_WINDOW
2.4M+
Carrier-Months Modeled
32 Yrs
Of Behavioral History
<5%
Of Book Needs Review Weekly
Read-Only
To Start — No Write Access
Core Capabilities

Prediction,
Not Alerting.

Monitoring tools tell you a carrier's status changed after it already posted. Stower models where each carrier is heading and surfaces the few that matter — early enough to act.

TRJ

Trajectory Modeling

Point-in-time reconstruction of each carrier's history, reading movement instead of a static snapshot.

  • Leakage-free reconstruction
  • Inspection & violation velocity
  • Pattern-matched to known outcomes
LEAD

Early Warning

Flags deterioration before it surfaces in the FMCSA record — the lead time that turns insight into a decision.

  • Forecast horizon on each account
  • Calibrated confidence intervals
  • Timed to renewal windows
RANK

Portfolio Triage

A short, ranked worklist from a book of thousands — where expert attention produces the greatest return.

  • Prioritized by expected loss
  • Separates noise from real drift
  • Flags accounts recovering on their own
WHY

Explained Signals

Every flag arrives with its drivers, so an underwriter sees why an account rose — not a black-box score.

  • Ranked contributing factors
  • Comparable-carrier analogues
  • Auditable reasoning
INTG

Connects To Your Systems

Reads from the systems you already run — policy, claims, loss-control — and does the joining itself. No new habits.

  • No manual logging
  • Reconstructs intervention → outcome
  • Integrates in read-only first
GOV

Data Governance

Shared behavioral priors stay non-competitive; your claims and outcomes stay in your private layer.

  • Federated calibration
  • Your data never trains a rival's book
  • SOC 2 track, audit logs
How It Works

From The Whole Book
To The Few That Matter.

Stower sits on top of the data you already hold and turns it into one continuous view of where your book is heading.

trajectory_pipeline
# the whole insured carrier book
book  reconstruct_history()      # point-in-time
      model_trajectory()        # where it's heading
      rank_by_expected_loss()   # the few that matter
      explain(drivers)          # why it rose
      worklist.json             # prioritized, this week
  • 01 Reconstruct each carrier's record as it stood at each point in time
  • 02 Model the trajectory and expected loss exposure
  • 03 Rank the book; surface only the accounts worth attention
  • 04 Deliver each flag with its drivers and a recommended action
Inputs
book_roster.csv fmcsa_history policy + renewal claims (optional) loss_control_notes
Outputs
risk_trajectory ranked_worklist lead_time driver_explain recommended_action
Read-Only To Start · Write-Back Only When You're Ready
Evidence

The Number That
Matters Is Lead Time.

Earlier warning is only worth the decision it changes. Stower is measured on how far ahead of the public record it flags real deterioration — validated against outcomes, not asserted.

61d
Median Lead Time
Ahead Of Public-Record Posting*
0.83
Recall On Severe Outcomes
At Fixed Review Budget*
4.2×
Attention Efficiency
vs. Uniform Account Review*
In Practice

A Clean-Looking Account,
Already Drifting.

Illustrative scenarios showing where trajectory beats status. Replace with real, anonymized results as you gather them.

RM
Regional Trucking MGA
~6,000 Power Units

An account cleared every static rule — no recent claim. Stower saw the out-of-service rate accelerating and a clean-inspection streak ending, matching carriers that later produced severe losses.

61d
Before Public Record
Kept
Account Retained
  • Flagged for a targeted maintenance review
  • Carrier supplied inspection evidence; rate fell
  • Retained instead of a blind non-renewal
SC
Specialty Commercial Carrier
~18,000 Insured Carriers

Loss-control specialists were spread evenly across the book. Stower concentrated their week on the accounts where intervention actually changes the trajectory — and quieted the ones stabilizing on their own.

4.2×
Attention Efficiency
<5%
Of Book Surfaced
  • Ranked worklist replaces uniform review
  • Recovering accounts excluded automatically
  • Same team, materially larger book covered

Priced To Your Book

Start on a slice of your book with read-only access. Prove the lead time, then expand. Priced on book size, not per seat.

Pilot

Fixed / 90 days

Prediction on a defined slice of your book. Read-only. Prove lead time before anything else.

Trajectory Modeling On A Book Sample
Ranked Worklist Delivered Weekly
Lead-Time Validation Against Outcomes
No Integration, No Write Access
Scope:Sample Book
Access:Read-Only
Data:Stays Yours
Start A Pilot
Most Common

Prediction

Custom / year

The full early-warning engine across your entire in-force book, priced by book size.

Everything In Pilot, Book-Wide
Continuous Trajectory On Every Account
Explained Flags + Recommended Action
Renewal-Timed Worklists
Underwriter Workflow Delivery
Scope:Full Book
Priced On:Units / Premium
Support:Dedicated
Request Access

Platform

Custom

Prediction plus full system integration and the intervention-outcome learning loop.

Everything In Prediction
Systems Integration — Claims, Loss Control
Intervention → Outcome Learning
Impact Measurement vs. Matched Controls
Federated Calibration, SOC 2
Scope:Portfolio Control
Integration:Full
Governance:Private Layer
Talk To Us
Questions

FAQ

How Is This Different From Carrier Monitoring Tools? +

Monitoring tools alert you when a carrier's status changes in the public FMCSA databases — the event has already happened. Stower reconstructs each carrier's history point-in-time and forecasts deterioration before it posts to that record. The difference is lead time: enough of it to change a renewal, pricing, or intervention decision while the decision is still open.

What Data Do You Need To Start? +

The pilot runs on public carrier history plus a read-only roster of the book you want scored — no claims data and no write access required. Deeper capabilities (impact measurement, the learning loop) come later, once you choose to connect claims and loss-control systems.

Do Our Teams Have To Log Anything? +

No. Stower reads from the systems you already run and reconstructs the intervention-to-outcome link itself. There are no new habits to adopt and no manual data entry — the platform does the joining.

Where Does Our Data Go? +

Shared behavioral priors are built from public carrier history and stay non-competitive. Your claims, outcomes, and book-specific results live in a private layer that tunes the model to your book without exporting anything to a competitor. Your data never trains a rival's book.

How Do You Prove The Prediction Actually Works? +

Lead time is measured against outcomes, not asserted — how far ahead of the public record a real deterioration was flagged, reported with intervals against matched comparable accounts. The pilot exists precisely to establish that number on your own book before you commit further.

What's In The Pilot? +

A defined slice of your book scored for 90 days: continuous trajectory modeling, a ranked weekly worklist with explained drivers, and a lead-time validation report measured against what actually happened. Read-only, your data stays in your control, and it's designed to answer one question — does the early warning hold up on our accounts.

Request Access

Start With Prediction.
Prove The Lead Time.

Run Stower on a slice of your book, read-only, for 90 days. See how far ahead of the public record it flags real deterioration — before you connect a single other system.

Read-Only · Your Data Stays Yours · No Integration Required To Begin